Zay Flowers — Week 3: Twenty-Seven Yards Before the Kick

31 all, seven seconds left, first and 10 at the Baltimore 35 after a touchback. Lamar Jackson threw deep down the middle to Zay Flowers, 27 yards in the air, and Flowers was tackled at the Dallas 38. Baltimore called its last timeout with one second on the clock, and Tyler Loop made a 56-yard field goal to win it 34 to 31. The catch was worth +1.7 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and nearly 19 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. That was the largest win-probability gain on any Ravens pass or run of the afternoon.

The line: six targets, five catches, 84 yards, five first downs, no touchdown, +6.6 expected points on his targets; one carry for 20 yards. The catches: 22 on second and eight at the Dallas 42 in the first quarter, down 10 to nothing, on the drive that ended in Derrick Henry's first touchdown; seven on second and three in the second quarter; 14 on second and seven to the Dallas 16 with two 36 left in the game, down 28 to 24, and 14 more on second and 10 from the 16 to the two with one 54 left, on the drive that ended in Matthew Hibner's go-ahead touchdown; and the 27. Every catch moved the chains. The one incompletion was third and six at the Dallas nine with four 51 left in the half, and Baltimore kicked a field goal. A deep ball his way early in the second quarter does not count in the line: it drew a 19-yard pass interference penalty. The carry was the first snap of the fourth quarter, up 24 to 21, around left end from the Dallas 23 to the three; that drive ended on Henry's fourth-down stop at the one. Three targets in each half.

Six targets were 30 percent of Jackson's 20 throws, the most on the team, ahead of five to Mark Andrews and three to Rashod Bateman. His 84 yards led the Ravens, and his targets were worth more expected points than any other Baltimore receiver's.

Back in June the preview called Flowers a 30-percent-target-share receiver who had turned 1211 yards into only five touchdowns on a hundred 18 targets — the targets being the part that repeats, the touchdowns the part it expected to rise. Week 1 was five catches for a hundred 50 yards and a 54-yard touchdown, all before halftime, before he left with a hamstring injury, per Ryan Mink at BaltimoreRavens.com. He does not appear in the Week 2 play-by-play. Sunday, in his return, the share was back at June's 30 percent. Two games: 12 targets, 10 catches, 234 yards, one touchdown. The volume looks like June's read; two games settle little. Baltimore is home against the Titans on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._