Atlanta Falcons pythagorean win delta, 2025
+0.8
21st of 32, biggest shortfall first
- +0.2
- Through the 2025 season
Did the Falcons win more games than their point differential earned?
The Falcons finished +0.8 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 21st of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.
From the Falcons weekly
Atlanta beat New Orleans 45-24 at the Caesars Superdome on Monday night, and it ran straight through the fronts built to stop it. The tone was set on the third snap. Second and 1 at the Atlanta 41, 13:43 left in the first quarter, no score: Bijan Robinson went around left end into a seven-man box and ran 59 yards for a touchdown. It was worth +4.7 expected points added (EPA), what a snap is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, and 14.8 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The Falcons never trailed, led 24-7 at halftime, and after two first-quarter punts scored on six straight possessions, leaving aside two snaps to end the half.
Read the Week 4 note →Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.
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