2025 season · Regression Flags

Carolina Panthers pythagorean win delta, 2025

+1.5

27th of 32, biggest shortfall first

League median
+0.2
Sample
Through the 2025 season

Did the Panthers win more games than their point differential earned?

The Panthers finished +1.5 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 27th of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.

From the Panthers weekly

Fourth and thirteen at the Detroit ten, one twenty-nine left, Carolina up thirty-two to twenty-six and the Lions out of timeouts. Jared Goff threw short over the middle to Isaac TeSlaa, and TeSlaa was brought down at the Detroit twenty-two after twelve yards, one yard short. Bryce Young knelt twice, and Carolina had beaten the Lions thirty-two to twenty-six at home. The Panthers trailed for about ten minutes, all of it at three to nothing in the first quarter; it was tied at thirteen and at sixteen at halftime, and they led the rest of the way. Two points went missing at the kicking tee: Fitzgerald's extra point hit the right upright in the second quarter and went wide right in the third.

Read the Week 4 note →

Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.

More on this team: the Carolina Panthers page.

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