Carolina Panthers pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Panthers weekly

Second and fifteen at the Carolina twenty-nine, two thirty-six left in the game, Carolina up eighteen to thirteen. Deshaun Watson threw deep right for Concepcion, and Evans intercepted it in the end zone. It did not count. Okereke was flagged for roughing the passer, fifteen yards, first and ten Cleveland at the fourteen. Instead of a touchback and two and a half minutes to protect a five-point lead, seventeen points of win probability went to the Browns — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — on a snap that goes in the book as no play. Three snaps later, on third and ten from the fourteen, Watson found Fannin for the touchdown, and the two-point pass made it twenty-one to eighteen. Carolina lost to the Browns twenty-one to eighteen in Cleveland on Sunday. It led for about seven minutes, all of them in the fourth quarter, and after Metchie's touchdown with four twenty-nine left the model had the Panthers at seventy-eight percent, their high for the day.