Chicago Bears pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Bears weekly

Fourth and one at the Philadelphia thirty-two, ten fifty-two left in the first quarter, no score, on the opening drive. Case Keenum — taking every Bears snap at quarterback with Caleb Williams out with a hamstring strain, per the Bears' own team site — threw short left to Sam Roush for sixteen yards. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that was plus two point six. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it was about ten and a half points, the biggest swing on a Chicago snap all night. Three plays later, third and two from the eight, Keenum found Luther Burden over the middle for the touchdown, six to nothing with eight fifty-six left in the first and seven after the kick. Chicago led for the remaining fifty-four minutes of game clock, never trailed, and the model never had the Bears below the fifty-five percent it gave them at kickoff. The Bears' passing game took no sack and threw no interception. Twenty-seven to seven, Monday night at home.