Detroit Lions pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Lions weekly

Twenty-four all, four oh six left, first and ten at the Detroit thirty-five, one snap after the Jets had tied it with a fourth-down touchdown and a two-point conversion. Jared Goff threw deep middle to Isaac TeSlaa for forty-nine yards to the Jets sixteen: fourteen and a half points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, plus three point one. Three snaps later, third and five at the eleven, Goff threw short right to Jahmyr Gibbs for the touchdown with two thirty left: seventeen points of win probability, the second-biggest swing of the game. The Jets reached the Detroit twenty-eight on the next drive, and on second and ten with fifty-one seconds left Geno Smith was sacked for thirteen yards by Clark, who knocked the ball loose, and Jack Campbell recovered. Detroit won thirty-one to twenty-four at home, and has now scored thirty-one points in all three of its games.