Miami Dolphins pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Dolphins weekly

Second and nine at the Kansas City thirty-one, three sixteen left in the first half, Miami down fourteen to seven. The Dolphins had come from their own twelve, forty-four yards of it on one throw from Malik Willis to Bell, and stayed alive on fourth and three when a holding penalty on the Chiefs wiped out an incompletion. Willis kept it up the middle for three yards to the twenty-eight and was ruled down. Kansas City challenged, and the ruling was reversed: a fumble, forced and recovered by Sneed at the twenty-five. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — minus three point seven. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, thirteen points, the biggest swing of the game, on a play that had been ruled over. Miami lost twenty-four to ten at home, never led, and is oh and three. It was seventeen to ten with six minutes left.