Miami Dolphins pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Dolphins weekly

Third and five at the Miami thirty-six, Miami's first possession of the second half, Minnesota up nine to nothing. Ollie Gordon took it off left tackle and was not pushed out of bounds until the Minnesota eleven, fifty-three yards later. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — plus four point seven. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, eleven points, the largest swing of the game. Then two yards on three snaps, and a twenty-seven-yard field goal. Miami lost fifteen to ten in Minnesota and is oh and four. It ran thirty-seven pass and run plays to Minnesota's sixty-nine, and after five forty-eight of the fourth quarter it never had the ball again.