New England Patriots pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Patriots weekly

First and ten at the Jacksonville thirty-five, three fifty-eight left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing. New England had just converted a third and two, and by the win probability model — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the Patriots were at sixty percent, the highest they would be all afternoon. Drake Maye was sacked at the Jacksonville forty-two, the ball came out, and DaVon Hamilton recovered at the thirty-eight. Seventeen points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game, and by expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — minus five point eight. Jacksonville went sixty-two yards in ten plays for the game's first touchdown. The Patriots lost thirty-five to six in Jacksonville, never led, and never scored a touchdown.