New Orleans Saints pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Saints weekly

Third and four at the Las Vegas twenty-nine, thirteen oh four left in the game, New Orleans up twenty-seven to twenty-two. Tyler Shough went back to pass, Koonce sacked him for a ten-yard loss and forced a fumble, and Maxx Crosby recovered for the Raiders at their own forty-five. Fourteen and a half points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was minus five point seven. It was the first of four. The Saints' last four possessions ended in a sack-fumble, an interception, a sack-fumble on fourth down, and a fumble after a catch, all in the fourth quarter. They had led twenty-seven to sixteen with five forty-six left in the third, when the model gave them an eighty-seven percent chance. They lost thirty-five to twenty-seven at home, and the Raiders scored the last nineteen points.