Pittsburgh Steelers pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Steelers weekly

Fifty-three seconds left, Pittsburgh up thirty to twenty-seven, and Cincinnati at the Pittsburgh thirty-eight after converting a third and eight — first and ten, and by win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, the Bengals were at forty-five percent. Joe Burrow was sacked by Harmon, the ball came out, and Pittsburgh recovered. Forty-two points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game, and by expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — minus four point one for Cincinnati. On defense, a big negative number is the good direction. Two kneel-downs later the Steelers had beaten the Bengals thirty to twenty-seven. A week earlier this offense scored three points in New England. Sunday it scored thirty, more than Weeks 1 and 2 combined, with three touchdown passes after one in the first two games.