Pittsburgh Steelers pythagorean win delta, 2025

From the Steelers weekly

Twenty-four all, a minute forty-two left, and Pittsburgh had just come all the way back. Down twenty-four to sixteen, it had faced fourth and ten at the Cleveland eleven. Aaron Rodgers's throw for Darnell Washington fell incomplete, but McNeil-Warren was flagged for pass interference, first and goal at the three. Pat Freiermuth caught the touchdown on the next snap, and Rodgers ran the two-point try in himself. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, the flag was worth ten point seven points and the two-point run thirteen point seven. Then the Browns went thirty-six yards in a minute twenty-one, and Szmyt kicked a fifty-six-yard field goal with fifteen seconds left, twenty-one point eight points of win probability, the biggest swing of the night. Rodgers's last throw, deep right for Roman Wilson, was intercepted. The Steelers lost to the Browns twenty-seven to twenty-four on Thursday night in Cleveland and are two and two.