San Francisco 49ers pythagorean win delta, 2025
+1.9
31st of 32, biggest shortfall first
- +0.2
- Through the 2025 season
Did the 49ers win more games than their point differential earned?
The 49ers finished +1.9 wins against their pythagorean expectation in the 2025 season, 31st of 32 on this board — below zero means they won fewer games than their point differential earned.
From the 49ers weekly
Third and twelve at the San Francisco eighteen, eight forty left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing. Brock Purdy threw short left to Mike Evans, Evans took it two yards to the twenty and lateraled to Deebo Samuel, and Samuel went the other eighty for the touchdown. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus seven point seven. It moved win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, by twenty points, more than any other snap in the game. San Francisco led from that play to the final whistle and beat the Cardinals thirty-six to thirty at home to go three and oh. After it, Arizona's chance of winning never rose above about thirty-one percent.
Read the Week 3 note →Which teams won fewer games than their point differential in 2025?
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5), New York Giants (-3.1), then Arizona Cardinals (-2.4) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Regression Flags board.
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