Ravens, Week 1 — What Repeats: Play-Action Up Twelve Points

Baltimore faked a handoff on 10 of its 29 dropbacks in Indianapolis on Sunday. That is 35 percent, the fifth-highest play-action rate of any offense in the league this week, against a league median of 21. Across all of last season this offense used play-action on 22 percent of its dropbacks. Lamar Jackson's seven play-action throws went six for a hundred and 19 yards; his other 18 went 11 completions for 205 passing yards. The Recap had the ground game and the three long throws. The charting says the fake was built into the offense at a rate it did not use a year ago.

The boxes are the other half of the picture, and they were close to what this offense saw a year ago. The Colts showed six or fewer defenders on nine of Baltimore's 31 designed runs — 29 percent, tied with Atlanta for the sixth-lowest share in the league this week, against a median of 47. Last season this offense saw a light box on 33 percent of its designed runs, so against Baltimore's own baseline that is a few points fewer; against the Colts' own baseline, which the Colts episode carries, it is about half what that defense usually shows. Either way, those 31 designed runs went for a hundred and 67 yards into an average of 6.7 defenders. Derrick Henry's 24 carries for a hundred and 44 three touchdowns is where most of that lives. The Recap's 205 rushing yards adds Jackson's scrambles, which the box count leaves out, so keep the two totals apart.

Jackson's ball charting was ordinary in one place and moved in another. Charters marked 18 of his 25 throws catchable — 72 percent, fifteenth-highest in the league this week, a shade above the median and right on his own 72 from last season. One of the 18 catchable balls was dropped. One throw of the 25 was charted interception-worthy, which is four percent, tied for ninth-highest in the league this week; across his 304 charted throws last season it was two percent, six balls all year. The number that moved is contested throws. Five of the 25 had a defender arriving with the receiver — 20 percent, after 11 percent for Jackson across last season — and none of them went the other way: no interceptions, no throwaways, and no sacks charted as his fault on 26 dropbacks. Last season nine of his sacks were charted as quarterback-fault, close to three percent of his dropbacks.

The pass defense was the Recap's headline, and here is what the charting adds: it did it without changing the rush. Baltimore sent five or more rushers on eight of the Colts' 34 dropbacks — 24 percent, nineteenth-highest in the league this week — and last season this defense sent five or more on 24 percent as well. What Daniel Jones's throws looked like against it is the interesting part. Charters marked 24 of his 31 throws catchable, 77 percent, the eighth-highest figure of any offense this week and better than his own 72 across last season. His receivers dropped three of those 24 catchable balls. Nine of his 31 throws were contested — 29 percent, against 19 percent for everyone who threw at this defense a year ago. One of his throws was charted interception-worthy; the game had one interception, and the pack cannot say whether it was that throw. On the other side of the same ledger, Baltimore showed the Colts a light box on 12 of 19 designed runs, 63 percent, nine points more light boxes than this defense showed a year ago, and those 19 went for 98 yards. That is the softer half the Recap named.

Two more scheme figures moved, in opposite directions. Baltimore put a man in motion on 46 of 86 charted plays — 54 percent, tied with Indianapolis for sixth in the league this week, against a median of 45; last season it was 42 percent. Screens went the other way: one on 29 dropbacks, after seven percent of dropbacks across last season.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Henry led the team with 34.8 — 24 carries for a hundred and 44 three touchdowns, +1 catch for 19. Jackson, 25 even: 17 of 25 for 324 and a touchdown, no interceptions, and seven carries for 40 and a score. Zay Flowers, 23 and a half — five catches for a hundred and 50 on six targets and the touchdown. Mark Andrews four catches for 49 on six targets, 6.9. Chris Moore one catch on two targets, and it went 53 yards. For Indianapolis, Jonathan Taylor ran 19 times for 98 two touchdowns and caught three for 23, 23.6; Jones was 19 of 31 for a hundred and 66, a touchdown and an interception; Alec Pierce caught four for 61 on six targets, and Tyler Warren three for 13 with the touchdown.

A word on what all of that is being compared to, because the show's name promises something it cannot deliver yet. There has been one game. Every "last season" in this episode is the whole of last year — a different roster in places, everyone a year older, some of them in a different job. Through Week 3 that is the only baseline there is, and it tells you what is unusual about Sunday, not what is true about this team. The within-season version, the one that measures Baltimore against its own recent weeks, starts working around Week 4. Until then we will say which comparison we are making every time.

The thread starts here, so here is the whole of it. Last season this offense finished second in the league in expected points per rush and 20-fourth per pass play, and the defense finished 20-first against the pass. Three things go in the notebook from Sunday. A play-action rate of 35 percent after 22 a year ago, with boxes close to what this offense usually sees. A quarterback whose contested-throw rate went from 11 percent to 20 with nothing bad on the sheet yet. And a pass defense that allowed a hundred and 66 yards on 31 throws, 24 of them catchable, while sending five or more rushers as often as it did through a 20-first-ranked season. The third is the one that decides the season, and one afternoon in Indianapolis cannot tell you whether it was the Colts' receivers or Baltimore's defense. We are writing all three down.

That's your Ravens — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Ravens show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._