Ravens 17, Saints 24 — Week 2: Three Points After Halftime

Third and eight at the Baltimore 30, two oh three left, tied at 17. Tyler Shough threw short right to Juwan Johnson, Johnson took it 25 yards to the five, and a roughing the passer flag on Hendrickson moved it to the two. 18 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game, and the fifth time New Orleans had converted a third down that needed seven yards or more. Four snaps later Shough went up the middle on fourth and one for the touchdown. Baltimore lost 24 to 17 at home to the Saints. The Ravens led for about 38 minutes, did not trail until a minute 32 remained, had a win probability as high as about 90 percent, and scored three points after halftime.

Start with the defense on third down, because that is where the lead went. New Orleans converted eight of 15. Baltimore's stop rate, 47 percent, is 20-third of the 28 teams that have played this week. And the long ones were the problem. On third downs needing seven or more the Saints went five for eight, including 29 yards on third and 13 in the second quarter and 25 on third and 13 in the third. Those eight snaps were worth +12.2 expected points added to New Orleans. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. The Saints' whole offense finished the day at +9 and a half. Without the third and longs it was under water.

That makes the pass defense the paragraph that contradicts last week. 37 New Orleans pass plays were worth +10.9 expected points, 20-second of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. In Week 1 at Indianapolis this same unit allowed −15.2 on 33 pass plays, second-best in the league that week per play. At the rate Baltimore's pass defense allowed last season, when it ranked 20-first, those 37 plays would have been worth about +2.7. So this was not a return to last year's level; it was about four times worse. And it got worse as the game went: +2.1 on 16 pass plays before halftime, +8.8 on 21 after it. There were three sacks for 19 yards and no takeaways.

The run game is the part of this that will bother people, so take it number first. 77 percent of Baltimore's rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule. That is the best rate of the 28 teams that have played this week. Only seven of 22 rush plays gained three yards or fewer. A hundred eight yards and +3 expected points, third so far this week per play behind Buffalo and Tampa Bay, and a little ahead of what last season's run game, second in the league, would have produced on the same 22 plays, about +2.2. The opening touchdown drive ended with Derrick Henry on four straight snaps, the last a direct snap around right end from the one. Here is the thing to repeat. The most reliable run game of the week ran 22 times, tied with Cincinnati for twentieth so far this week, and eight times after halftime, two of those Lamar Jackson scrambles. On third and one at their own 37, tied at 17 with eight 21 left, the Ravens threw deep middle for Moore. Incomplete, five points of win probability gone, punt. New Orleans kept the ball for the next 16 plays.

The passing game had two different halves. 17 pass plays before halftime were worth +9.1 expected points. 16 after it were worth −5.7. The good half had the longest play from scrimmage in the game, Jackson deep left to Walker for 47 on second and five from the Baltimore 11, and a 10-play, 80-yard drive that took under three and a half minutes and ended with Jackson deep middle to Rashod Bateman for 22 and a touchdown with 28 seconds left in the half. For the day it was 33 pass plays for +3.4, thirteenth so far this week per play, with a success rate of about 55 percent that ranks fifth. At last season's rate, when this passing offense was 20-fourth, the same plays would have been worth about −1.2. The sacks are what undid it. Three of them lost 31 yards and 6.1 expected points.

Up seven to nothing, second and 10 at the New Orleans 28, Chase Young for −11. That became third and 21, then a 49-yard field goal try that Granderson blocked. Up 14 to nine in the third quarter, third and 10 at the New Orleans 19, Young and Shepherd for −12, seven points of win probability, and Tyler Loop had to make it from 49. He did. That drive took more than seven minutes and had already survived a holding call on a 12-yard Jackson scramble and an ineligible-downfield flag that erased a 10-yard completion. Then the possession that could have put it away. New Orleans had just punted from its own nine, Baltimore had the ball at the Saints' 49, up 17 to nine. False start. A completion for −3. A Werner sack for −8. Third and 26, incomplete, punt. That was one of three three-and-outs. On third down the offense was four of nine, tenth so far this week, but nothing for three when it needed seven or more, and the distances on those three were 21, 10 26.

The run defense did its job by the yardage. 68 rushing yards allowed, eighth-fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week, and 19 of New Orleans' 27 rush plays gained three or fewer. By expected points it ranks only 20-first so far this week, at −1.4, and the reason is two snaps: fourth and one at the Baltimore 44 with five 41 left, and fourth and one at the goal line. Shough got one yard up the middle both times. Kyle Hamilton had stopped him for nothing on the third down before the touchdown.

Two special teams plays belong on the ledger. The blocked field goal was one. And after the Bateman touchdown made it 14 to three, the Saints returned the kickoff 53 yards to the Baltimore 44 with 24 seconds left, and got a 47-yard field goal out of it at the gun. The last chance ended the same way the day went: second and 10 at the New Orleans 37, 20 seconds left, no timeouts, Jackson deep left for Bateman, intercepted by Blackmon at the seven. It was the game's only turnover.

Now the thread, for anyone new to this team. Last season the Ravens went eight and nine. The run game ranked second in the league by expected points per play and the run defense seventh, but the passing offense was 20-fourth and the pass defense 20-first. In Week 1 they won 41 to 23 at Indianapolis with 529 yards, second-most in the league that week, a passing game that ranked sixth and a pass defense that ranked second. This week the offense managed 343 yards and 17 points, and the pass defense ranks 20-second of the 28 teams that have played. So the two games disagree about the pass defense, and last season sides with this one. The run game is the constant: second last year, third in Week 1, third so far this week. Two games do not settle it, but the honest update is that Week 1 now looks like the better of two very different afternoons rather than the new normal.

Baltimore faces the Cowboys next Sunday. Watch third and long on defense, and watch how many times the run game gets called.

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_Data via nflverse._