Ravens 34, Cowboys 31 — Week 3: Loop From Fifty-Six at the Horn

First and 10 at the Baltimore 35, seven seconds left, 31 all. Dallas had just tied it. Lamar Jackson threw deep down the middle to Zay Flowers for 27 yards to the Dallas 38, Baltimore called its last timeout with one second on the clock, and Tyler Loop made a 56-yard field goal. That kick was worth 27 points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the biggest swing of the game, and the catch before it was worth nearly 19. Baltimore beat Dallas 34 to 31 on Sunday afternoon in Rio de Janeiro. The Ravens trailed 10 to nothing in the first quarter, when their win probability bottomed out at 19 percent, then scored 17 straight points and led from 11 29 of the second quarter until nine 46 of the fourth. Dallas scored 15 straight to go up 28 to 24. Baltimore went back ahead with 94 seconds left, was tied with 10 seconds left, and won it on the last snap.

The passing game opens on a rate, because it carried this offense. Expected points added measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, against what that situation was already worth. Baltimore's 20 pass plays — sacks would count, and there were none — produced +11.9 of them, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Per play that is second of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind only San Francisco, and 65 percent of those plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for — the highest rate of the 28 teams so far this week. No Ravens passing game last season produced that much in total; the best was +11 and a half. At the rate Baltimore passed over the first two weeks, those 20 plays would have been worth about four and a half. At last season's rate, when this passing game ranked 20-fourth, about −1. The biggest gain through the air is not in that count: third and 11 at the Baltimore 48, 11 37 left in the second quarter, down 10 to seven, a deep ball down the middle drew a 49-yard pass interference penalty to the Dallas three. +5.1 expected points and 19 points of win probability, and Derrick Henry scored on the next snap.

The run game is the contradiction. 38 rush plays and a hundred 92 yards, both second of the 28 teams that have played this week behind only Atlanta, and seven runs of 10 yards or more. By expected points it was −4.2, 20-second of those 28. Last season this was the second-best run game in the league per play; at that rate 38 carries would have been worth about +4, and at the rate of the first two weeks about +8 and a half. The difference is short yardage. Baltimore ran four times on third or fourth down needing one or two yards and converted none of them, and those four snaps cost 10.6 expected points. Fourth and one at the Baltimore 30, six 12 left in the first quarter, down three to nothing: Henry up the middle for no gain, and Dallas turned the short field into a 10-to-nothing lead. Third and one at the Baltimore 49, eight 22 left in the game, down four: Henry for a loss of four, and a punt.

The costliest came in between. First play of the fourth quarter, up 24 to 21, Flowers ran around left end for 20 yards to the Dallas three. Jackson lost one, Henry gained two, and on third and two Henry was ruled in before replay moved the ball back to the one. Fourth and one, 13 oh seven left, Henry at left guard, stopped for a loss of three. −4 and a half expected points and 16 points of win probability, the biggest swing Dallas got all afternoon, and the Cowboys went 96 yards in seven plays the other way. The run that went right came late in the third, on the snap after Baltimore blocked a 59-yard Dallas field goal try: first and 10 at the Baltimore 49, Henry for 29, and the drive finished with Jackson's four-yard touchdown throw to Moore on first and goal for a 24 to 13 lead.

The drive chart: 12 drives, four touchdowns, two field goals, three punts, two stops on fourth down, and no turnovers. Three of nine on third down. Six trips inside the Dallas 20 produced four touchdowns, a field goal and the goal-line stop. The go-ahead drive is where third down finally came through: 11 plays, 64 yards, from the Baltimore 36 with five 45 left, down 28 to 24. A 12-yard Jackson scramble on third and one was wiped out by an illegal formation penalty, and on third and six he found Mark Andrews for 10. Two 14-yard throws to Flowers reached the Dallas two, and on third and goal from the two with one 34 left, Jackson threw short middle to Hibner for the touchdown, 14 points of win probability.

The pass defense opens on its one takeaway. First and 10 at the Baltimore 23, 10 40 left in the third quarter, up 17 to 13: Dak Prescott short middle to Jake Ferguson, Travis Jones knocked the ball loose, and Simpson recovered at the 25. −5.6 expected points for Dallas and 19 points of win probability, the biggest swing any defense produced all afternoon. Across 41 Dallas pass plays the unit allowed +7.4 expected points — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — seventeenth per play of the 28 teams that have played this week. At last season's rate, when this pass defense ranked 20-second, 41 plays would have cost about +3; at the rate of the first two weeks, about −2 and a half. Roquan Smith had the only sack, on third and one from the Baltimore one in the first quarter, a nine-yard loss that sent Dallas to a field goal. The damage came on long yardage: Dallas converted four of six third downs needing seven or more. And the last Dallas drive reached first and goal at the Baltimore two with 23 seconds left on a 20-yard pass interference penalty. Dallas ran three plays from there, finished at the five, and kicked the tying field goal instead of scoring the winning touchdown.

The run defense was middling by the numbers and decisive once. 30 Dallas rush plays, a hundred 48 yards, minus point nine expected points, 40 percent successful — seventeenth of the 28 teams that have played this week. At last season's rate, when it ranked in the top 10, those 30 runs would have been worth about −1 and a half; at the rate of the first two weeks, about zero. The once: down 14 to 10, Dallas went for it on fourth and one at its own 44 with nine 24 left in the half, and Smith stopped Javonte Williams for no gain. Baltimore took over at the Dallas 43 and kicked a field goal for a seven-point lead.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Baltimore went eight and nine with the second-best run game in the league by expected points per play, a passing game that ranked 20-fourth, a top-10 run defense and a pass defense 20-second. Week 1 was a 41 to 23 win at Indianapolis in which the run game ranked third, the passing game sixth and the pass defense second. Week 2 was a 24 to 17 loss at home to New Orleans, with the run game fourth, the passing game sixteenth and the pass defense 20-fifth. Sunday flipped the offense's order: the passing game second of the 28 teams to play so far this week and better than any game it had last season, the run game below zero for the first time in three weeks, largely because of four short-yardage snaps. Three games do not settle much, and 20 pass plays is a small sample. But it is the first time this season the throws won a game the runs could not finish.

Baltimore is home against the Titans next Sunday.

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_Data via nflverse._