Ravens 24, Titans 18 — Week 4: Ninety-Eight Yards After the Stand

First and goal at the Baltimore eight, 10 20 left in the second quarter, Ravens up 14 to seven. Tennessee handed it to Tony Pollard four straight times. Three yards, then two, then one, and on fourth and two at the two the Titans snapped it directly to Pollard, who went at right guard and was stopped by Madubuike for no gain. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, the stop was −3.1 for Tennessee, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. Baltimore took over at its own two and went 98 yards. Mark Andrews caught a six-yard throw on third and four to get out from the goal line, Rashod Bateman took a short throw 28 yards, Zay Flowers caught one 52 yards to the Titans five, and two snaps later Lamar Jackson found Andrews for a three-yard touchdown and a 21 to seven lead. The Ravens beat the Titans 24 to 18 on Sunday. They led 24 to seven at halftime, did not score again, and finished it by recovering an onside kick with one 12 left.

The passing game opens on its first half, because there were two of them. Jackson's 22 pass plays before halftime, two sacks included, were worth +11.8 expected points: 15 of 20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns. On his final snap of the half he was sacked at the Titans 46, and the play-by-play logs him as injured on that play. Tyler Huntley threw every pass after halftime, eight of nine for 63 yards, and his nine pass plays came out at plus point three. Across all 31 pass plays the unit finished at +12.0, with 55 percent of them successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At the rate Baltimore passed over the first three weeks, those 31 would have been worth about 10. The throws were on target: 25 of 29 were charted catchable, 86 percent, second of the 30 charted offenses this week, where the median was 69. None was charted interception-worthy. The best of them was the 52-yarder: first and 10 at the Baltimore 43, four 44 left in the half, Jackson deep right to Flowers, +3.6 expected points. Flowers finished with 10 targets, eight catches, a hundred 18 yards and the 19-yard touchdown that broke a seven-all tie.

One thing the throws did differently was the fake. Baltimore used play-action on six of 33 dropbacks, 18 percent, 20-second of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 34 percent across the first three weeks. It was not only the quarterback change. Jackson threw three times off a fake, completing two for 53 yards. Screens went the other way: four this week, after three in the first three games combined.

The run game opens on its success rate. 32 percent of 28 rush plays were successful, and the unit finished at −2.2 expected points for a hundred 14 yards. At its rate over the first three weeks those carries would have been worth about +2 and a half. Derrick Henry carried 23 times for 73 yards, and seven of the carries gained nothing or lost yardage. The best of them came first: fourth and one at the Titans five, 12 13 left in the first quarter, five yards at left guard for the touchdown, on the drive Simpson's interception had started at the Tennessee 37. After halftime the runs went 17 times for 55 yards and −4.6. The box does not explain it. Tennessee showed six or fewer defenders on nine of 26 designed runs, 35 percent, about the 33 percent this offense had seen across the first three weeks. The designed runs gained 3.4 yards each, after nearly five over those three weeks.

The pass defense opens on its takeaways: two, and no giveaways, a turnover margin of +2. The first came on the second snap of the game. Cam Ward threw short over the middle for Pollard from the Baltimore 43, Simpson intercepted it and returned it 24 yards, −6.7 expected points and 18 points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, the largest swing of the game. The second came with 46 seconds left in the half: Carnell Tate caught a 33-yarder at the Baltimore 37, Hamilton forced the fumble, and Starks recovered. Two Jackson completions took it to the Titans 41, and after the sack that ended his day, Tyler Loop made a 64-yard field goal with five seconds left for the 24 to seven lead. Across 32 Tennessee pass plays, the defense allowed −3.9 expected points. At its rate over the first three weeks, those plays would have been worth about +1 to the Titans. It got there without the rush that defined last week. Baltimore sent five or more pass rushers on four of 36 dropbacks, 11 percent, 20-ninth of the 30 charted defenses this week, after 36 percent across the first three. Three of Ward's throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 10 percent, after 22 percent allowed over those three games. The leak was Tate: 12 targets, nine catches, a hundred 45 yards.

The run defense opens on yards. Tennessee's 22 designed runs gained 58, 2.6 a carry, and all 26 rush plays, scrambles included, came to −5.2 expected points with 31 percent successful. At the rate it allowed over the first three weeks, those runs would have been worth about minus point three. And Baltimore did it light. It showed six or fewer in the box on 16 of 22 designed runs, 73 percent, after 64 across the first three weeks. The goal-line stand was the proof: four runs from the eight, six yards.

The second half is where the game got close. Baltimore's six possessions after halftime produced four punts, a missed field goal and a pair of kneel-downs. The miss: fourth and six at the Titans 22, three 24 left, up 14, and Loop's 40-yarder went wide left. Third down was two of 10 for the day. Tennessee went 70 yards from there. Ward hit Tate for 33 on fourth and 11 to the Baltimore three, Wan'Dale Robinson caught the touchdown with one 16 left, and Gunnar Helm caught the two-point try. Starks recovered the onside kick at the Titans 44.

Last week's notebook had three entries. Play-action, steady for three weeks, fell to 18 percent, below the league median. The lighter defensive boxes got lighter still, and the run defense allowed 2.6 yards a designed run, after about four across the first three weeks. And the five-rusher entry, the one that broke the right way against Dallas, reversed: Baltimore barely sent extra rushers, and the pass defense still came out on the good side of zero. The one to watch next is the fake. Jackson threw off it on three of 20 throws on Sunday, after 23 of 74 over the first three weeks.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Flowers: eight catches on 10 targets for a hundred 18 yards and a touchdown, 21.8. Jackson: 15 of 20 for 222 two touchdowns, two carries for 20, 18.9. Henry: 23 carries for 73 and a touchdown, two catches for six, 14.9. Andrews: five catches on six targets for 27 and the touchdown, 11.2. For Tennessee, Tate: nine catches for a hundred 45, 17; Ward 15.6; Pollard 12.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._