Ravens 30, Falcons 23 — Week 5: Henry's Two, Hamilton's Pick

Baltimore beat Atlanta 30-23 in overtime on the road on Sunday night, from eight points down with 2:35 left. Tyler Huntley started at quarterback in place of Lamar Jackson. His touchdown throw to Devontez Walker with 44 seconds left made it 23-21, and Derrick Henry ran the two-point try around left end to tie it, a snap worth 16 points of win probability. Baltimore took the overtime kickoff and finished the drive on Huntley's 1-yard run with 3:01 left. Atlanta got two snaps. On the second, first and 10 at the Atlanta 48, Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa's throw for Drake London at the Baltimore 40, a 50.5-point swing in win probability and the largest of the game.

The passing game finished below zero by expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. Its 36 pass plays were worth -3.6 EPA, -0.10 a play, against +0.34 through Week 4, even though 50% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. One snap cost more than the unit's whole total. Second and 19 at the Baltimore 25 in the first quarter, Huntley hit Mark Andrews for 9, Sydney Brown forced a fumble, and Jessie Bates returned it 36 yards for an Atlanta touchdown: -7.0 EPA and 20.1 points of win probability. Huntley went 24 of 32 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The other touchdown came down 17-9 in the third, second and 10 at the Atlanta 18, a short throw left to Henry, who took it 18 yards in, +2.6 EPA. The two-point throw to Andrews fell incomplete. Zay Flowers caught 8 of 9 targets for 53, Rashod Bateman 5 for 62.

The charting says Huntley's ball was clean. 28 of his 32 throws were catchable, 87.5%, against 79.6% for this offense through Week 4. None was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, after 12.6%, and none was interception-worthy, after 3 through Week 4. Receivers dropped 3. Atlanta sent five or more rushers on 17 of 38 dropbacks, 44.7%, against the 32.2% Baltimore had seen through Week 4. Huntley left the pocket 12 times on 37 dropbacks and was charted at fault for 3 sacks, after none in his 10 dropbacks before.

The run game was Smashed, and the yardage says so first. 32 designed runs gained 206 yards, after 503 on 111 across the first four weeks. All 34 rush plays were worth +6.2 EPA, +0.18 a play against +0.05 through Week 4, with 44.1% successful. Henry ran 24 times for 102 yards and Justice Hill 4 times for 73. Atlanta did not give it light fronts: six or fewer in the box on 12 of 32 designed runs, 37.5%, close to the 33.3% Baltimore saw through Week 4. The run that set up the win came in overtime. Tied 23-23 with 4:54 left, second and 8 at the Atlanta 39, Henry went at right guard for 11 yards to the 28 before Divine Deablo and Xavier Watts brought him down, +1.1 EPA and 12.8 points of win probability. Later on the drive he went around left end for 7 to the 10, and Huntley scored from the 1. The ground game was stopped once where it mattered: second and 1 at the Atlanta 1 in the first quarter, Henry lost 2 on a direct snap, and Baltimore settled for a field goal.

The pass defense lost the down-to-down and won on the snaps that decided it. Atlanta converted 9 of 17 third downs, and its 38 pass plays were worth +6.2 EPA, +0.16 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 4; on defense, a positive number is the bad direction. Michael Penix Jr. went 19 of 32 for 240 yards, and London caught 7 for 118. Baltimore sent five or more on 14 of 40 dropbacks, 35%, against 30.5% through Week 4. The charting gave it something: 68.6% of Atlanta's throws were catchable, against 75.7% allowed through Week 4, and 2 of 35 were interception-worthy, after 2 in 136. Hamilton caught one of them. Mike Green, Trenton Simpson and Tavius Robinson had sacks; Robinson's, with 27 seconds left in regulation, was a 10-yard sack-fumble that Atlanta recovered.

The run defense was Smashed, and the success rate allowed tells it: 19.2% of Atlanta's 26 rush plays were successful. They were worth -7.5 EPA, -0.29 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 4; on defense, a big negative is good. Atlanta gained 110 yards. Baltimore got there by loading up, with six or fewer in the box on 9 of 24 designed runs, 37.5%, against 65.9% through Week 4. Bijan Robinson ran 17 times for 86. First and 6 at the Baltimore 6 in the second quarter, Malaki Starks and Zion Young dropped him for a 3-yard loss, though Atlanta scored on third down anyway.

The game turned on two stops and two third downs. Down 17-15 with 3:47 left in the third, Atlanta went for it on fourth and 2 at the Baltimore 39; Penix's throw to Charlie Woerner was ruled a 2-yard loss and replay reversed it to incomplete, -2.8 EPA for Atlanta and 12.8 points of win probability. In the red zone, Atlanta scored one touchdown on 9 plays and kicked three field goals, which left Baltimore one score away at 23-15. Then the overtime drive survived two third downs: third and 3 at the Baltimore 39, Huntley found Andrews for 10, 14.6 points of win probability; third and 6 at the Atlanta 47, Flowers for 6, 15.8 points. Baltimore scored three touchdowns on 11 red-zone plays.

The scheme pulled back on the fake. Play-action fell to 7 of 38 dropbacks and run-pass options to 2, 2.9% of snaps, from 5.6%. Huntley went 4 of 5 for 46 yards off play-action and 20 of 27 for 155 without it. Motion held at 48.4% of charted plays, against 48.3%, and no-huddle rose to 5.7% from 3.4%.

Last week's notebook asked whether the fake would come back. It did not: with Huntley in, play-action stayed at 18.4%, under this offense's 29.8% through Week 4, though he completed 4 of the 5 he threw off it. The one to watch next: whether the designed runs keep gaining when defenses load the box, and whether Huntley's catchable rate holds near 87.5% when a defense makes him throw more.

That's your Ravens, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Ravens on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._