Ravens 10, Browns 13 — Week 6: Henry's Fumble, Martin's Offside

Baltimore lost 13-10 at Cleveland, and it scored all 10 of its points in the first quarter. Tyler Huntley's 2-yard touchdown to Josh Cuevas and Tyler Loop's 34-yard field goal built the lead, and the offense did not score again. Loop missed from 49 early in the fourth, Derrick Henry fumbled on Baltimore's next drive, and the Browns tied it. With 2 seconds left Keyon Martin blocked Andre Szmyt's 42-yard attempt, but he was offside, and Szmyt made the 37-yarder that followed.

The passing game moved the ball in pieces and rarely on schedule, and its success rate shows it: 32.4% of 34 pass plays succeeded, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. By expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, they came to +4.7, +0.14 a play, against +0.23 through Week 5. Huntley completed 19 of 31 for 165 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, and was sacked three times. The big ones carried it: Cuevas for 29 plus a roughing-the-passer flag, Zay Flowers for 17 on third and 10, and Flowers for 31 on third and 11 late in the third. Flowers caught 6 of 11 targets for 66.

The run game was Muffed, and EPA counts the cost: 23 rush plays worth -10.0, -0.43 a play, against +0.08 through Week 5. Only 34.8% succeeded, for 87 yards and no touchdowns. Henry ran 17 times for 58 and opened with 11- and 17-yard runs, but the goal line went the other way. Second and 1 at the Cleveland 1 went for no gain, and third and 1 lost a yard, -2.5 EPA. Huntley's fourth-down throw to Cuevas bailed that drive out.

The pass defense smashed Cleveland's passing game, and EPA per play leads the case: the Browns' 31 pass plays were worth -0.22 each, against +0.03 allowed through Week 5. On defense, negative is good. Only 35.5% succeeded, Deshaun Watson threw no touchdowns, and Baltimore sacked him five times: Calais Campbell, Trey Hendrickson, Martin and Roquan Smith one each, with Nnamdi Madubuike and Tavius Robinson splitting one. Campbell's set the tone. Up 7-0 in the first quarter, third and 5 at the Cleveland 29, he dropped Watson for an 8-yard loss, -2.6 EPA to the Browns and 5.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The unit broke only late: Jerry Jeudy caught all 4 of his targets for 69 yards.

The run defense came in worse than its own standard, and the success rate allowed shows it: 51.7% of Cleveland's 29 rush plays succeeded. They came to -0.2 EPA, about break-even, against -0.11 allowed through Week 5; here a lower number is the good direction. The Browns gained 93 yards, and Audric Estimé's 2-yard touchdown tied the game.

The game turned with 12:45 left, up 10-3. On first and 5 at the Baltimore 28, Henry ran left tackle for 5 yards, Carson Schwesinger forced the fumble, and Tyson Campbell recovered at the Baltimore 35: -5.0 EPA and 9.2 points of win probability. Cleveland converted third and 4 for 15 yards, drew a pass-interference flag on Martin on third and 6 at the 10, and scored on second and 2. Tied with 42 seconds left, the defense lost third and 5 at the Cleveland 38 to Jeudy for 33 yards, 16.8 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

Baltimore converted 6 of 16 third downs and scored 1 touchdown on 9 red-zone snaps. Of 11 drives, 1 ended in a touchdown, 1 in a field goal and 3 in three-and-outs. The defense stopped 11 of Cleveland's 16 third downs. The one to watch next: whether a run game that fell from +0.08 EPA a play to -0.43 gets back to its baseline, and whether the offense can score after the first quarter.

That's your Ravens, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Ravens on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._