Ravens 13, Bengals 35 — Week 7: Up 13-0, Then 35 Straight

Baltimore lost 35-13 at home to Cincinnati and is 4-3, after leading 13-0 at halftime. The Ravens scored on three of their first four drives, a touchdown and two field goals. Then the Bengals scored touchdowns on five straight drives, and Baltimore's five second-half possessions before the last brought a three-and-out, a punt, an interception and two turnovers on downs. 10 drives produced one touchdown, two field goals and nothing after halftime.

The passing game was two units, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, splits it at the break. Its 22 first-half pass plays were worth +16.0 EPA; its 16 second-half pass plays were worth -12.5. Together that came to +0.09 a play against +0.21 through Week 6, though 52.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Tyler Huntley completed 23 of 34 for 298 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked four times, three of them after halftime. He was 15 of 21 for 215 yards in the first half and 8 of 13 for 83 in the second. Zay Flowers caught 8 of 11 targets for 137 yards, 120 of them before the break. The throw that started it came on the third snap of the game: third and 9 at the Cincinnati 48, Huntley threw short right and Flowers took it the rest of the way for the touchdown, +5.3 EPA and 16.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The one that ended it came down 28-13 with 7:25 left: first and 10 at the Baltimore 35, a short throw for Flowers that Demetrius Knight Jr. intercepted and returned to the 24, -6.0 EPA. Cincinnati scored three plays later.

The run game was Muffed for a second straight week, and success rate shows how rarely it worked: 25.9% of 27 rush plays succeeded. They were worth -9.4 EPA, -0.35 a play against +0.01 through Week 6, for 83 yards and no touchdowns. Derrick Henry ran 17 times for 45 yards, and only 2 of those carries gained positive EPA. Short yardage cost points. Up 7-0 in the second quarter, Henry was stopped for no gain on second and 1 and third and 1 at the Cincinnati 11, a false start turned fourth and 1 into fourth and 6, and Tyler Loop kicked a 34-yard field goal. Before the half, first and 10 at the 13 ended in Loop's 24-yarder.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Cincinnati's 31 pass plays were worth +0.59 a play, against -0.01 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is the bad direction, and +18.2 in total is a lot of it. The first half was fine: Joe Burrow went 6 of 12 for 43 yards, and Mike Green's sack for 8 was the only one Baltimore got all day. After halftime he went 16 of 18 for 249 yards and all four touchdowns, and 61.3% of the pass plays for the game succeeded. Tee Higgins caught 6 of 7 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown, 87 of them on two fourth-quarter catches of 44 and 43.

The run defense stayed close to its standard, and EPA per play says so: Cincinnati's 20 rush plays were worth -1.3 EPA, -0.07 a play, against -0.09 allowed through Week 6; here negative is good. They gained 73 yards at a 50% success rate, and Chase Brown needed 11 carries for 39. Kyle Hamilton set the tone on the opening drive, dropping Samaje Perine for a loss of 2 on third and 1 at the Baltimore 47, -2.5 EPA for Cincinnati, and forcing a punt. The one rushing touchdown came from 1 yard, after K'Von Wallace's pass-interference penalty moved the ball from the 8.

The game turned on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Down 14-13, Baltimore had fourth and 2 at the Cincinnati 12 after Josh Cuevas's 19-yard catch on second and 10 and Henry's 9-yard run had carried the drive there. Huntley threw short middle for Cuevas and it fell incomplete: -3.1 EPA and 15.0 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Three Chase Brown runs later, second and 6 at the Cincinnati 33, Burrow found Higgins deep middle for 44 yards, +14.0 points of win probability, and Perine scored from the 1 for a 21-13 lead after the extra point. Baltimore converted 9 of 16 third downs and scored no touchdowns on 10 red-zone snaps.

Last week's notebook asked whether Huntley's throws would get back to catchable, which waits for the charting, and whether a run game that fell to -0.43 EPA a play against Cleveland would get back to its baseline. It did not: -0.35 a play, against +0.01 through Week 6. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.59 a play here, after -0.01 through Week 6, holds for four quarters, and whether the short-yardage runs start moving the chains.

That's your Ravens, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Ravens on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._