Ravens 10, Bills 36 — Week 8: 91 Passing Yards in Buffalo

Baltimore lost 36-10 at Buffalo on Sunday, its third straight loss, and fell to 4-4. Lamar Jackson, in his first game since Week 4, threw one pass on the Ravens' first snap and was injured on the play. Tyler Huntley took the next five dropbacks, and Joe Fagnano played from midway through the second quarter. The 36 points were the most Baltimore has allowed this season. 12 drives produced a touchdown, a field goal, three giveaways, a turnover on downs and five three-and-outs.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far it fell: 30 pass plays worth -20.2, -0.67 a play against +0.19 through Week 7, the worst game this season by that measure. Only 26.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and they produced 91 passing yards. Huntley went 2 of 4 for 0 yards; Fagnano went 10 of 21 for 91 with an interception and was sacked three times. Zay Flowers was targeted 5 times and caught none. Down 10-7 early in the second quarter, third and 8 at the Baltimore 40, Cole Bishop sacked Huntley and forced a fumble that Kaleb Elarms-Orr recovered at the 20, -5.2 EPA. It was Huntley's last play of the game.

The run game succeeded more often than it was worth, and success rate is the generous read: 8 of 18 rush plays, 44.4%, gained what the situation asked for, for 77 yards. EPA had them at -3.6, -0.20 a play against -0.03 through Week 7, and almost all of that was one snap: third and 1 at the Buffalo 48 with 2:38 left, Fagnano lost the snap and Dorian Williams recovered, -3.8 EPA. Henry ran 11 times for 53 yards, his fewest carries this season, and scored from the 2 after an interception set Baltimore up at the Buffalo 17. Down 16-7 in the third, his 9-yarder reached the 5, and after a false start his 10-yard touchdown came back on Ronnie Stanley's holding penalty. The drive ended in Loop's 26-yarder.

The pass defense held for a half, and the split in EPA allowed shows where it stopped: Buffalo's 19 pass plays before halftime were worth -9.8, the 16 after it +12.7. On defense a negative number is good. For the game: +0.08 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 7, close to its standard. Josh Allen completed 21 of 34 for 289 yards and two touchdowns with one sack, split by Mike Green and Nnamdi Madubuike. In the first quarter, first and 10 at the Buffalo 16, defensive tackle Broderick Washington intercepted Allen at the 17, -5.5 EPA for Buffalo, and Henry scored two runs later. After halftime DJ Moore's 49-yard catch and Dalton Kincaid's 40-yarder set up touchdowns, and Kincaid scored the last from 23.

The run defense faced 39 rush plays, the most it has seen in a game this season, and EPA per play allowed says it gave ground: +0.00 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 7, with 51.3% of the plays successful for 148 yards. Here, too, a negative number is good. James Cook ran 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. The goal line held twice. On the opening drive Zion Young and Malaki Starks stopped Allen at the 1 on third and 1 before he scored on fourth. In the second quarter, from first and goal at the 3, Buffalo lost a yard in three runs, the last Kyle Hamilton's 3-yard tackle for loss on Allen on third and 1, -2.8 EPA for Buffalo, and the Bills kicked a 22-yarder.

The game turned on two possessions in the second quarter. Down 13-7, Rasheen Ali's 59-yard kickoff return and two Fagnano completions reached the Buffalo 7. Landon Jackson sacked him for 9, two passes fell incomplete, and Loop's 34-yarder hit the left upright, -3.7 EPA. With 2:00 left, Roquan Smith forced Moore's fumble after an 18-yard catch and T.J. Tampa recovered at the Baltimore 18, 8.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, back to the Ravens. Four plays later, first and 5 at the Baltimore 35 after an offside penalty, Fagnano threw short left for Flowers, and Davison Igbinosun intercepted at midfield and returned it 17 yards to the 33: -4.1 EPA and 15.7 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Buffalo kicked a 51-yarder for 16-7 at the half and outscored Baltimore 20-3 after it.

Last week's notebook asked whether a pass defense that allowed +0.59 a play against Cincinnati would hold for four quarters, and whether Henry's short-yardage carries would start moving the chains. The pass defense held for two: -9.8 EPA allowed before halftime, +12.7 after. Henry had two carries needing 2 yards or fewer, a 1-yard gain on second and 2 and the touchdown from the 2. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that went from +0.19 a play through Week 7 to -0.67 across three quarterbacks has one who can bring it back.

That's your Ravens, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Ravens on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._