Troy Franklin

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• 2026 PreviewJul 4, 2026

  Troy Franklin 2026 Season Preview — what repeats, what doesn't

  Franklin played all 17 games and finished as WR33 with 144.6 half-PPR points, averaging 8.5 per game — a consistent presence across a full season. The foundation was durability and steady deployment rather than any spike in efficiency or touchdowns, which means how the target distribution around him holds up matters more than whether he repeats a hot stretch.

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  Show notes & transcript

  Troy Franklin was the second-most-targeted receiver on a 14-three offense last season — a hundred and four targets, 65 catches, 709 yards — and he is being drafted like a fifth wideout. Receiver 88, pick two-27. On paper that gap is the loudest value in this whole range. This episode is about the one transaction that quietly closed it.

  The season: 17 games, 65 catches on a hundred four targets for 709 yards and six touchdowns. On Half-PPR scoring that is eight-and-a-half points a game — 40-first among receivers per game, 30-third in total, WR-two-slash-three production out of a player priced at the back of the draft. 17.8 percent of Denver's targets in his games, second on the team behind only Courtland Sutton. And the part that matters most for what comes next: his touchdown share was point-two-oh-three, just under our fade line. This was not a touchdown mirage; the volume was real and the scoring was earned.

  The career says year two was a genuine leap. As a rookie he caught 28 balls for 263 yards; last year he more than doubled the yards and tripled the role. That is the trajectory of an ascending player — a second-year receiver who won a real job on a very good team and produced like it.

  The pattern beat gives the case its legs, then the depth chart takes them away. Our what-sticks research says targets are the identity stat — they replicate at point-seven-nine year to year across 954 receiver seasons — while touchdowns are the weather. Franklin's profile is the good kind: high, sticky target volume, a touchdown rate that was not inflated. Stickiness says the hundred-target role repeats. There is one problem, and it is not in the data.

  The situation is a trade that reshaped his ceiling. Denver acquired Jaylen Waddle this offseason, per the reporting, and Waddle slots in as the number-two receiver opposite Sutton — which pushes Franklin from the ascending WR2 he was into a fight for the third role. Sean Payton runs the offense, with Davis Webb now calling the plays and Bo Nix at quarterback; the machine is good, and Denver's receiver room may now be the deepest in football. That depth is the whole problem. The hundred-target volume that made Franklin look underpriced was earned before Waddle arrived to claim a chunk of it, and Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims are in the same rotation. The talent did not change; the number of mouths did.

  The price: receiver 88 at pick two-27. The slot pays 4.3 a game; he produced eight-and-a-half. Our verdict: watchlist — and the gap between those two numbers is the trap, not the tell. We cannot call a receiver underpriced on a target share that a Jaylen Waddle trade just carved into, even though the tape and the stickiness math both loved him a month ago. The market moved for a reason. The caveat runs hard both ways: if Waddle misses time or Payton simply feeds three receivers, 88 is still a bargain for a proven producer — and if the targets split three ways all season, the WR-two-slash-three line does not come back, and this price is about right.

  Watch the camp pecking order behind Sutton first — Franklin against Waddle for the perimeter snaps — then his September target share against last year's 17.8 percent, then whether Nix trusts him near the goal line. The player is good. The room got crowded the same offseason the price started to look like a steal. If he's one of your guys, this show exists for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.