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Two rules from the 2016–2025 record point the same way: teams that won under 35 percent of their one-score games gained 2.44 wins on average the next year and improved 69 percent of the time across 71 cases, and teams 1.5 or more wins under their Pythagorean projection gained 2.07 and improved 68 percent of the time across 44. Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025.
Among receivers with at least 50 targets, no other 2025 receiver cleared 43.3 percent and the best previous season in the ten-year files was DJ Moore's 47.6 in 2022; Smith-Njigba turned 163 targets into 119 catches and 1,793 yards.
He averaged 21.5 Half-PPR points per game on 311 carries for 1,202 yards, 3.86 a carry, and finished 165 yards below the expected-yards model; he also took 52.1 percent of San Francisco's carries and targets inside the 10, the largest goal-line share by any player in the 2016–2025 files.
His 0.32 EPA per dropback led the league across 602 dropbacks in 2025, and on the unstable slice — pressured, blitzed, or third and fourth down — he averaged 0.28 while 18 of the 32 primary starters went negative.
He completed 62.8 percent against a 65.4 percent expectation on 502 attempts in 14 games; the one positive season in that span is 2018, at plus 1.5. The expectation is Next Gen Stats' model of each throw, so the number reads the throws he chooses as much as the ones he misses.
On 3,940 charted five-rusher dropbacks in 2025, pressure rate jumped to 38.3 percent from 26.2 with four rushers, yet offenses gained 0.064 EPA per dropback against the blitz versus 0.033 against four. Team blitz rate and EPA allowed were nearly uncorrelated at r = -0.09.
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Scored Half-PPR · data via nflverse
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