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New England's offense ranked 1st in the league by EPA per play across 2025 and ranks 28th through Week 3 of 2026, scoring 12 points a game.
Maye 29th of 36 by EPA per dropback through three weeks · 36 points in 3 games·Verified Sep 30, 2026
Through Week 3 of 2026 the Patriots are 1-2 and tied with Miami for the fewest points a game after a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, where the offense ranked 30th of 32 for the week and Drake Maye ranked 31st of 32 quarterbacks by EPA per dropback with 2 interceptions and 3 sacks. FTN charting has 8 of his 89 charted dropbacks interception-worthy, 9.0 percent, the highest rate among the 29 qualifying quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy ranks 1st of 36 qualifying quarterbacks by EPA per dropback through Week 3 of 2026 at 0.665, after ranking 1st for the week in Week 2 and Week 3.
3rd of 34 by completion percentage over expected through Week 3, plus 7.5·Verified Sep 30, 2026
In Week 3 he completed 15 of 27 for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 36-30 win over Arizona, 1st of 32 quarterbacks for the week at 0.901 EPA per dropback, with a completion percentage over expected of plus 0.3. San Francisco is 3-0, its offense ranks 1st by EPA per play through Week 3 after 6th across 2025, and its 98 points are 2nd in the league by points a game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league with 405 receiving yards and 6 touchdown catches through Week 3 of 2026, the top Half-PPR receiver in Week 2 and Week 3.
31.1 percent of Seattle's targets in Week 3 · at least 11 targets every week·Verified Sep 30, 2026
In Week 3 he caught 10 of 14 targets for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 33-31 loss at Washington, 30.4 Half-PPR points, with Sam Darnold throwing 45 passes for Seattle after Drew Lock had thrown nearly all of them over the first two weeks. Through Week 3 of 2026 his share of Seattle's targets is 37.9 percent and his share of its air yards 51.9 percent, 1st of 30 qualifying receivers by weighted opportunity rating.
Bijan Robinson ran 29 times for 194 yards at Green Bay, the most rushing yards in a game this season, as Atlanta's offense went from 32nd in Week 2 to 2nd.
34.3 Half-PPR, RB2 of Week 3 · 70.0 percent of Atlanta's chances inside the 10·Verified Sep 30, 2026
Through Week 3 of 2026: the 35-14 win was the Falcons' first, Robinson scored 2 touchdowns, Atlanta's run game ranked 1st of 32 for the week by EPA per rush, and he took 70.7 percent of the carries. Over three games the offense still ranks 29th; Robinson's 349 rushing yards are 2nd in the league and his 64.8 rushing yards over expected rank 3rd of 45 qualifying backs.
From Week 2 to Week 3, receivers' target share repeated at r = 0.36 and Half-PPR points at 0.36; for running backs, carry share at 0.61 and points at 0.47.
2025 offense tracked Week 3 at 0.12 · 2025 defense tracks three weeks at 0.37·Verified Sep 30, 2026
Through Week 3 of 2026, across the 107 receivers and tight ends with at least 3 Week 2 targets and the 56 backs with at least 3 Week 2 carries, all of whom played both weeks. Team offense repeated from Week 2 to Week 3 at 0.05 and team defense at minus 0.02, while 2025's defense tracked Week 3 at 0.38 — last season still says more about a defense than last week does. Pearson correlations, not forecasts.
Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games in 2024 and 1-9 in them in 2025 — a 6-11 team with a Pythagorean projection of 9.5 wins.
11-0 to 1-9 in one-score games · 3.5 wins under Pythagorean·Verified Sep 30, 2026
Two rules from the 2016–2025 record point the same way: teams that won under 35 percent of their one-score games gained 2.44 wins on average the next year and improved 69 percent of the time across 71 cases, and teams 1.5 or more wins under their Pythagorean projection gained 2.07 and improved 68 percent of the time across 44. Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025.