Quarterback EPA per Dropback Leaders
Quarterback EPA per Dropback — 2016 NFL leaders, updated Aug 13, 2026. Tom Brady (NE) led the league in expected points added per dropback at 0.31, ahead of 33 other qualifying players. Based on verified 2016 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2016 season.
Expected points added per dropback asks what each pass attempt was worth; success rate asks how often the attempt simply worked, with no credit for the size of the gain. Read them together. A quarterback high in the first and low in the second lives on explosive plays and disappears for stretches; high in both is the profile of an offense that stays on schedule. The dropback is the honest denominator because it charges a passer for the snaps that never became throws — a sack and a scramble are both quarterback outcomes, and a passer whose per-attempt line looks tidy because he takes the sack instead of testing the coverage is exactly who this separates.
| # | Player | DB | EPA/DB | Success% | Total EPA | Scr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | 459 | 0.31 | 50.3% | 143.4 | 2.6% |
| 2 | Matt Ryan | 591 | 0.30 | 53.8% | 177.9 | 2.7% |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | 511 | 0.25 | 52.5% | 126.6 | 5.3% |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 688 | 0.23 | 49.3% | 157.4 | 6.3% |
| 5 | Kirk Cousins | 637 | 0.17 | 52.4% | 110.0 | 1.4% |
| 6 | Ben Roethlisberger | 535 | 0.17 | 48.4% | 89.3 | 0.6% |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | 655 | 0.14 | 49.0% | 94.8 | 3.8% |
| 8 | Drew Brees | 698 | 0.14 | 51.1% | 98.9 | 0.4% |
| 9 | Derek Carr | 596 | 0.14 | 45.8% | 81.3 | 2.9% |
| 10 | Brian Hoyer | 203 | 0.13 | 49.8% | 26.6 | 0.5% |
| 11 | Andrew Luck | 627 | 0.12 | 49.4% | 76.2 | 6.5% |
| 12 | Marcus Mariota | 498 | 0.12 | 47.0% | 58.1 | 4.6% |
| 13 | Tyrod Taylor | 527 | 0.11 | 45.0% | 57.7 | 9.5% |
| 14 | Jameis Winston | 635 | 0.11 | 49.0% | 67.8 | 4.4% |
| 15 | Alex Smith | 539 | 0.10 | 46.8% | 53.8 | 3.9% |
| 16 | Andy Dalton | 624 | 0.10 | 48.4% | 59.4 | 3.5% |
| 17 | Cody Kessler | 220 | 0.09 | 42.3% | 19.8 | 1.4% |
| 18 | Russell Wilson | 621 | 0.07 | 48.1% | 45.9 | 5.5% |
| 19 | Sam Bradford | 597 | 0.07 | 47.6% | 39.4 | 1.2% |
| 20 | Philip Rivers | 621 | 0.06 | 45.4% | 39.5 | 1.0% |
| 21 | Carson Wentz | 660 | 0.04 | 44.7% | 24.3 | 2.9% |
| 22 | Carson Palmer | 643 | 0.04 | 47.3% | 23.6 | 0.6% |
| 23 | Ryan Tannehill | 432 | 0.03 | 46.5% | 13.7 | 3.2% |
| 24 | Colin Kaepernick | 401 | 0.01 | 42.6% | 4.0 | 8.7% |
| 25 | Matt Barkley | 223 | -0.01 | 50.7% | -2.1 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Trevor Siemian | 531 | -0.02 | 43.9% | -8.8 | 2.6% |
| 27 | Blake Bortles | 695 | -0.03 | 43.3% | -22.9 | 5.0% |
| 28 | Joe Flacco | 711 | -0.03 | 43.3% | -24.3 | 1.3% |
| 29 | Eli Manning | 622 | -0.04 | 44.2% | -22.2 | 0.5% |
| 30 | Cam Newton | 558 | -0.06 | 41.0% | -32.2 | 2.0% |
| 31 | Brock Osweiler | 550 | -0.06 | 45.5% | -34.7 | 2.9% |
| 32 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 440 | -0.07 | 42.5% | -29.1 | 4.1% |
| 33 | Case Keenum | 353 | -0.11 | 39.4% | -40.0 | 2.3% |
| 34 | Jared Goff | 233 | -0.42 | 30.5% | -97.6 | 1.3% |
Other seasons
Choosing between two of these players?
Both men's 2025 production side by side, and which of them rests on inputs that historically repeat.
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Pass Rate Over Expected
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
The weekly insights email. One story a week about what actually happened in the NFL — every number verified.
Get the story behind the numbers
The same AI that built these tables reads every play of every game and tells you what actually happened — as pages you can read and shows you can listen to, from this same verified data.
Drafting this month? Follow the guys you end up with, and your first weekly email lands Week 1 — the real plays and the real numbers behind everyone on your list.
Follow your guys — free →Ask this data a question
Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.